By all historic measures the U.S. economy has probably been in a continuous recession since 2000 following the collapse of the Dot Com bubble, and most definitely with their entry into what became known as The Great Recession following the 2008 financial crisis. And by historically we are of course referring to data modeling based on 1980 measures rather than on today’s government reporting which has experienced a multitude of model revisions bent on aiding whichever political party was holding the White House.
Two days ago on March 15, the Federal Reserve announced a new rate hike which was considered by many analysts to be the worst timing for one in the past 37 years in relation to current GDP growth estimates. And for those who actually watched Fed Chairman Janet Yellen try to justify the rate hike, all they heard was how strong the economy was in their eyes, and that raising rates would do little to effect the ‘recovery’.
Yet just prior to the rate hike announcement the Atlanta Fed reported a revision to their Q1 GDP numbers that brought estimates to below 1%, which when accounting for the real rate of inflation means the economy is well into a recession already. And now on March 17 another huge indicator was reported on that provides even more evidence that the economy is accelerating downward at a very fast clip.
Today we got some more weakness-confirming real-time ‘hard’ data confirming the facts that the US economy is anything but as strong and resilient as Yellen proclaimed it.
Industrial Production has never declined on a 24-month basis without the US economy being in recession… – Zerohedge
In addition to Industrial Production falling off precipitously, this week we also saw reports that consumer retail spending had experienced its own sharp decline, and rising price inflation has put the economy right square in the crosshairs of Stagflation.
Despite 10 years of near zero interest rates, and 10’s of trillions of dollars pumped into the banks and markets to keep the afloat, the economy has experienced its worst post-recession recovery in the history of the country, and that was with the manipulated data models which even saw increases of the ‘seasonal adjustments’ under former President Barack Obama. And sadly the Fed will continue to be on the wrong side of history here in 2017 just as the last Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke refused to accept that the economy was in recession back in 2010 despite it being the worst economic growth since the actual Great Depression.
Kenneth Schortgen Jr is a writer for The Daily Economist, Secretsofthefed.com, Roguemoney.net, and Viral Liberty, and hosts the popular youtube podcast on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. Ken can also be heard Wednesday afternoons giving an weekly economic report on the Angel Clark radio show.