On March 15, just hours before the Fed’s FOMC meeting culminated in the central bank raising interest rates once again, the Atlanta regional Fed bank lowered its forecast for Q1 GDP to below 1% validating further belief that the U.S. economy is severely slowing down in 2017.
After reporting an estimate for the GDP of 1.2% just two weeks ago, the Atlanta Fed updated their newest estimate to .9% following two reports out yesterday of a huge drop in consumer retail spending, and a sharp rise in price inflation.
In other words, confirmation of stagflation.
Latest forecast: 0.9 percent — March 15, 2017
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 15, down from 1.2 percent on March 8. The GDP growth forecast declined 0.3 percentage points on Friday when the February estimate of the model’s latent dynamic factor used to forecast yet-to-be released GDP source data declined after the employment situation release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth inched down from 1.6 percent to 1.5 percent after this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Consumer Price Index release from the BLS. – Zerohedge
Over the past year the government has used a variable known as a ‘double seasonal adjustment‘ to manipulate GDP growth much higher than it really was. And when you look at the true numbers configured by John Williams over at Shadowstats, the U.S. economy has been in negative growth since 2000 minus a singular blip back in 2004.
Thus the end game for the American people is much more dire than what is preached today on the mainstream propaganda news. High real unemployment coupled with negative growth, rising inflation, and a stagnant consumer economy at a time when the Fed is raising interest rates is the recipe for a disaster much greater than what took place in the economy in 1937-38 during the height of the Great Depression.
Kenneth Schortgen Jr is a writer for The Daily Economist, Secretsofthefed.com, Roguemoney.net, and Viral Liberty, and hosts the popular youtube podcast on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. Ken can also be heard Wednesday afternoons giving an weekly economic report on the Angel Clark radio show.